Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Odds
Kick-off · ATP
SprtGenie's AI pick for this tennis game, from analysis of live sportsbook odds, verified recent results and current news. After the game this page shows the final score and the graded result.
Our pick
- AI pick
- Tommy Paul
- Match Winner: Home Win
- Odds
- +260
- sportsbook price stored with the pick
- Confidence
- 39%
- Risk: Low · model probability 38%
- Result
- Pending
- graded automatically after the game
Paul's strong recent form and short rest offset by Alcaraz's superior Elo, rankings, and dominant head-to-head on hard courts.
Price and probabilities
- Best price for this pick
- +260
- at Fanduel, the best of the sportsbooks we compared when the pick was published. Prices move; check the current price before acting.
| Side | Market (no-vig) | Fair price | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | 26% | +280 | 38% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 74% | -280 | 62% |
Recent form
Tommy Paul
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | vs Luciano Darderi | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Daniil Medvedev | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vs Zizou Bergs | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs Valentin Vacherot | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2-0 | W |
Carlos Alcaraz
| Date (UTC) | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ Zizou Bergs | 0-2 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ Ben Shelton | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | @ Tommy Paul | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Yibing Wu | 3-0 | W |
Every pick is graded in public
Wins, losses and pushes for every finished pick are on the SprtGenie track record, graded automatically against the official final score.
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